The Extrapolation Bias: A meta-bias where one’s brain takes one bit of data and decides to use it explain everything. It’s the Captain Planet of cognitive distortions – summoned when Confirmation Bias ...

Insurance companies write policies to cover potential risks far into the future. Because the life of these contracts can extend well beyond the 30-year maturities for the longest U.S. Treasuries, it’s ...

One of our most common errors is an extrapolation or recency bias — the inclination to see the future as an extension of a straight line drawn from the present. This is such an understandable folly.

Fundamental market relationships maintain their shape despite a bias toward trend extrapolation There are some strong trends in markets at the moment, and some notable thresholds being crossed. Recent ...